On the 2016 campaign trail, then-candidate Donald Trump spoke with irreverence towards America’s most sacred military alliance: NATO.
Speaking in nationalist tones and calling the alliance obsolete, Trump put Europe on edge. Worried that a Trump presidency might lead to the US withdrawal from NATO, Europeans rooted for Hillary Clinton to win the presidency. Now, as President Trump’s first term ends, Europeans hope Joe Biden will win the election. In the United States, where citizens have begun to cast their ballots for the next president, many are still trying to establish exactly what the Trump presidency meant.
Identifying the tangible effects of the Trump presidency has been difficult. It requires sifting–through the blustering rhetoric, impulsive tweets, an impeachment and an ongoing pandemic. Discerning between the substance and the fluff has never been harder than today.
Relatedly, the 2020 general election has mostly lacked policy discussion. Foreign policy generally, and specifically, NATO relations have not been treated urgently like they were in 2016. Instead, NATO has taken a backseat to taxes, Covid-19, and the Supreme Court.
During the first presidential debate–a debate that found a way to include Hunter Biden, the Proud Boys, and Portland, Oregon–NATO and the EU were mentioned exactly zero times. However, the US’s relationship with its ancestral allies has global implications. Today, transatlantic harmony is particularly consequential–it serves to counterbalance the rise of nationalism and the growing Chinese presence in Europe.
With the US election less than a month away, and with Europe watching nervously, let’s consider Trump’s and Biden’s NATO perspectives more closely.
Under President Trump, US relations with NATO have deteriorated. Trump accelerated that deterioration. In labeling the alliance obsolete, in proposing conditional support of Article 5, which requires each member of NATO to defend an attack against any other NATO member, Trump has injected skepticism into NATO’s very institution. That skepticism has caused long-shared values to be reexamined. European diplomats are rating transatlantic relations as the lowest since the end of the Cold War.
When Trump disparaged NATO during the 2016 campaign, he made international headlines–his comments were viewed as blasphemy. Yet, Trump’s frustrations with NATO made sense–he wanted each alliance member to contribute the same percentage of their GDP, rather than rely primarily upon US defense spending. Trump’s reasoning is fundamentally correct: European nations, not the US, should bear the economic brunt of defending Europe. Actually, European dependence on the US has frustrated several administrations. JFK, Robert Gates, Hillary Clinton–they all criticized Europe’s lack of burden-sharing. But Trump, in his attempts to solve the burden-sharing problem, solved nothing–and created new problems.
Trump’s suggestion that Article 5 participation could become conditional on defense spending was particularly damaging. The suggestion eroded European faith in American loyalty. However, despite the tough talk, Trump’s threats proved hollow. While rhetorically desecrating the transatlantic alliance, Trump simultaneously maintained the NATO status quo as faithfully as Obama, Reagan, or Eisenhower. In effect, Trump has inspired enduring European complacency while simultaneously degrading global confidence in the US. Said as plainly as possible: Trump hasn’t changed a thing structurally but he somehow managed to upset everyone along the way.
Despite the conflicting rhetoric, Trump and Biden are substantively similar with respect to NATO–they have both used public office to maintain the status quo. However, a President Biden would explicitly reaffirm US allegiance to NATO. Biden has spent decades advocating for transatlantic cooperation. As a senator on the Committee of Foreign Relations, and later as Obama’s Vice President, Biden consistently and vocally supported NATO. As President, Biden would reach out from the Oval Office to calm the European nerves Trump has frayed.
But Biden’s current stance is consistent with his historical complacency. Biden will not correct the initial, unresolved frustration: the US is paying Europe’s defense bill. Until addressed, this valid frustration will continue to lurk beneath the surface of US-European relations, manifesting itself in different frictions.
Furthermore, Biden’s regenerative efforts are unlikely to fully reverse the damage Trump has caused. Before Trump, US commitment to Europe was accepted as dogma. Now, there are question marks that will not simply vanish should Biden take office. Joe Biden is not a geopolitical panacea–nobody is. And, even if Biden were successful in fully rehabilitating the US relationship with NATO, NATO would still be fundamentally flawed. But a flawed harmony trumps a flawed disharmony. With respect to NATO policy, Biden is the only viable presidential candidate.
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