As the world was waiting anxiously for the US 2020 Presidential Election outcomes, the US reported more than 100,000 daily coronavirus cases on November 5, the highest number so far recorded. In the meantime, many European countries have imposed second lockdowns.
Generally, European citizens and leaders are fed up. A sort of “pandemic fatigue” has set in – people miss human contact and have grown weary of living in isolation. But, are these new lockdown measures worthwhile?
On Thursday, November 5, the World Health Organization’s regional director for Europe, Hans Kluge said that Europe is currently seeing an explosion of COVID-19 cases and warned of tough times ahead.
In Denmark, a new virus strain was discovered, which might be resistant to future vaccines. Upon discovering 12 people infected with this new strain in Denmark’s Jutland region, the Danish government decided to impose tougher lockdown restrictions. Citizens’ movements between regions will be limited. Restaurants and bars will be shut down. The mutant form of COVID-19 was discovered among farmed mink. Denmark produces about half of the world’s mink skins. In order to prevent the spread of the new virus strain, about 15-17 million mink on Danish farms will be killed.
Last week, Italy saw its highest daily death toll since late April. In response, Italian authorities imposed a second partial lockdown on Friday, October 30, after registering 34,505 new virus cases and 445 deaths the day before. In the regions of Lombardy, Calabria, Piedmont, and Aosta Valley, people will only be allowed to leave their homes for work, health reasons or emergencies. Bars, restaurants and all non-essential businesses except hair salons will have to shut down again. People in other medium-risk zones will also be barred from leaving their cities, and bars and restaurants there will have to shut down as well. The presidents and leaders of these regions have protested against the newly reimposed restriction. Nello Musumeci, Silicy’s president, called the decision “absurd and unreasonable.”
On October 31, Greece’s prime minister, Kyrakos Mitsotakis, imposed a national lockdown that would last three weeks. Greece saw over 2,600 new infections and almost 20 deaths on Wednesday, October 28. Only essential businesses, such as supermarkets and pharmacies, will remain open and people are not allowed to leave their homes without authorization. The only difference to the first lockdown in late March is that primary schools and preschools will be open. Greece’s prime minister said, “It was a difficult decision … but measures must be taken for three weeks to overcome this second wave.”
In Germany, a second partial lockdown, called “lockdown light,” was imposed on Monday, November 2, after the country reported an average of 17,000 COVID-19 cases a day. New contact restrictions have been imposed, bars, restaurants, gyms and other entertainment facilities were closed down again, hotels are not allowed to host tourists, while schools and shops will remain open.
Across Germany demonstrations have emerged. Epidemiologist Dr. Bill Schaffner, who was interviewed by CNBC said,“There is fatigue and I actually characterize it as annoyance at the fact that this virus, which they cannot see, has intruded on their lives and upset us, economically, socially, culturally in every way […t]hey’re annoyed at the virus. They want it to just go away.”
Neighboring France has already been in a four week lockdown and has now imposed an additional 10 p.m. curfew for certain alcohol and takeout food shops. It has seen more than 30,000 new daily coronavirus cases over the last week.
Spain is under a curfew as well and has declared a state of emergency. And England, reporting about 22,000 new virus cases a day, has also issued a second four week stay-at-home order starting Thursday, November 5 that only allows people to leave their homes for essential reasons, such as going to the grocery store or to school.
Moreover, Sweden, one of the only European countries that did not impose a national lockdown in the spring, put in place new restrictions on restaurant and café capacity on Tuesday, November 3.
The case of Ireland suggests that these new lockdowns are effective. After two week of strict containment measures imposed on October 21, the country now has one of Europe’s lowest infection rates, limiting it to an R value, or reproduction number, below 1. The R value is a way of rating a disease’s ability to spread and refers to the number of people one infected person will pass on the infection to. Ireland’s lockdown measures are due to expire on December 2.
But there is no long-term plan. Nobody really knows what is to come, officials in Europe are simply trying to mitigate the virus outcomes and avoid the worst case scenario. And a vaccine is still out of reach. Virologist Albert Osterhaus warned that there might be an exhausting series of lockdowns and reopenings to come because there is no strategy.
Science magazine interviewed Karl Lauterbach, a health policy expert and member of the Bundestag for the Social-Democratic Party who helped design Germany’s new lockdown plan. “The hope is that vaccines and treatments and better options will be available in the new year,” Lauterbach said, “All we can do now is break the wave.”
So will the US see a similar second wave of lockdowns emerge?
This probably depends on the final election outcomes. However, many public health experts and epidemiologists have already sent out warnings – if action isn’t taken, the US could face a similar resurgence crisis as Europe.
As Dr. Syra Madad, the senior director of the systemwide special pathogens program at New York City Health + Hospital, told CNBC, “If cases continue to rise, that means the virus is winning and then we’re going to have to go into these massive shelter-in-place situations that you’re seeing across Europe. Whether you’re in the United States or whether you’re in Europe, either you decide what to do or the virus is going to decide for you.”
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