What Kind of Exit is Brexit?

With Boris Johnson stepping up as prime minister, the fate of Brexit has been sealed after more than three years of debating. The United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union on Jan. 31 at 11 p.m. 

On Jan. 24,  President of the European Council Charles Michel and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen joined prime minister Boris Johnson in signing off on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. 

On Twitter  Johnson celebrated the event: “Today I have signed the Withdrawal Agreement for the UK to leave the EU on January 31st, honouring the democratic mandate of the British people. This signature heralds a new chapter in our nation’s history.” 

But what lead to this final agreement, and what will happen next? 

The UK joined the European Union in 1973, and it is the first member state to withdraw. On June 23, 2016, Britain held a referendum to determine whether the country should remain in the EU or leave. More than half the country voted to leave, at 52 percent, and 48 percent voted to stay; meaning that 17.4 million out of approximately 33 million voters were in favor of a withdrawal. The BBC reported that voter turnout was about 72 percent.

So what took so long?

The original date for Britain’s exit was March 29, 2019, which would have left then-prime minister Theresa May with two years to negotiate the terms. However, Members of Parliament rejected her Brexit agreement twice, which pushed the date to Oct. 31.

The main reason for the British parliament’s rejection of May’s deal was the so-called “Irish backstop,” a provision meant to ensure that there would be no border posts or barriers between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland after Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. 

If required to prevent border posts, the backstop would have maintained a close trading relationship between the EU and the UK. This was criticized by Conservative Members of Parliament, who feared that it would trap the UK and prevent it from striking other trade deals. In May’s third, and last, defeat, Parliament voted 334 to 268 to reject her withdrawal agreement. Shortly after, she stepped down. 

After Johnson replaced Theresa May in July of 2019, the deal had to be extended a third time, because Members of Parliament didn’t pass his revised deal into law on Oct. 19. 

The main change Johnson made to May’s deal was replacing the backstop with new customs arrangements, which will give the UK more liberty to enter into trade deals with countries outside of the EU. 

These revisions, however, would create a customs border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Many goods entering Northern Ireland would then be checked and taxed at the border. 

At first, Members of Parliament rejected Johnson’s new deal. They were afraid that his proposal would sever Britain’s relationship with the EU completely, including trade agreements and provisions allowing British citizens to move freely in EU countries. 

Johnson’s call for an early general election on Dec. 12, which was seen as another vote on Brexit,  resulted in a conservative majority in Parliament, giving him the ability to fulfill his campaign promises to “Get Brexit done.”. The Members of Parliament voted in favor of Johnson’s withdrawal agreement on Dec. 20. 

What will happen next?

The Brexit deal needs the European Parliament’s approval to officially finalize it. It is very likely that the deal will be approved. After the approval, an eleven-month transition period will start, during which Britain will still follow the European Union’s trade rules. If there’s no extension, the transition period will end on Dec. 31. By then, Johnson wants to have established a free trade deal with the EU. 

At a special EU summit set to take place in late February, representatives from the UK and the EU will discuss the future relationship of the two bodies, including a trade deal, law enforcement, data sharing and security. 

Johnson is refusing to agree to any form of extension of the transition period. If no trade deal is determined by the end of the transition time, the UK would have to trade with no agreement and its goods would be subjected to checks and tariffs before entering the EU. 

The most pressing issue, however, is the nature of checks and borders for trading with Ireland. According to The Guardian, Johnson has been accused of misleading the public when he stated that there would be no checks on goods at the border. 

There are mandatory exit and entry forms that are part of a safety and security certificate. This certificate is part of a counter-terrorism regime established after 9/11 to protect the US, but it doesn’t apply when countries within the EU trade with one another. 

After Brexit, the certificate will apply to Northern Ireland and to trade between the UK and the EU. Business leaders have urged the EU to minimize checks and waive the safety and security certificate, and business owners have been protesting the agreement, arguing that the EU is their most important trade partner. According to official statistics, the EU accounts for 45 percent of the UK’s foreign trade. Since October there have been no further details released concerning these trade requirements. Johnson has said that he will announce his goals for the trade agreement in February. 

Although everyday life for British citizens probably won’t change much after Jan. 31, Brexit, as a legally binding international treaty, leaves the EU, and especially the UK and Ireland, with a largely unknown future until agreements are finalized. 

(Picture Credit: Wikimedia)