“This Protest is not Authorized”: Preventive Repression and Public Opinion in Electoral Autocracies

Does preventive repression bolster, or does that dissent despite obstruction? While a large literature recognizes the importance of preventive repression for authoritarian stability, we know very little about its effects on public opinion. To gain traction on this question Professor Katerina Tertychnaya draws on evidence from unusually detailed data on unauthorized and authorized protest from Russia and an original survey experiment. She shows that when the authorities engage in preventive repression, such as when they deny protest authorizations, protesters’ ability to generate support is compromised. Preventive repression also conditions the effect of demonstrator tactics on public opinion. These effects, however, are contingent on citizen attitudes about the law and the authorities. Findings, which provide the first causal test of the mass opinion effects of preventive repression, expand understanding of the consequences and audiences of preventive repression and have implications for studies of authoritarian resilience.