Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked international concern and condemnation. Yet perhaps none are paying more attention to the Ukraine crisis than Beijing. While the rest of the world waits with bated breath, Chinese President Xi Jinping is considering how he might emulate his fellow autocrat’s strategy to engineer a crisis that would compel Taiwanese concessions through the threat of full-scale war. In essence, the West’s response to the greatest security crisis in Europe since the Cold War has also become a test of the strategic assumption that lies at the core of Taiwan’s defense: that American military power will act as a deterrent against an invasion.
While a direct comparison cannot be made between the events unfolding in Ukraine and the situation in the Taiwan Straits, there are similarities that cannot be ignored. Much like how President Putin views Ukraine as a core part of Russian culture and history, Beijing has also long laid claim to sovereignty over the island of Taiwan. Both Putin and Xi have publicly made their respective claims of sovereignty over Ukraine and Taiwan a central pillar of their countries’ foreign policy. In using such rhetoric to fan nationalism and gain popular support domestically, both autocrats are loath to abandon these foreign policy goals, lest it tarnishes their political legacies. Furthermore, Russia’s attempts to check NATO’s spread before it arrives on its borders are echoed in China’s repeated protestations against the US’ alliance network in the Asia Pacific, which Beijing sees as a bid by the US to hem its growing power and influence.
Yet in some ways, Taiwan is even more vulnerable than Ukraine due to its ambiguous diplomatic status. While Ukraine is an internationally recognized sovereign nation and a founding member of the UN, Taiwan was expelled from the UN via a UN general assembly vote on October 25, 1971, part of the political necessity in having the People’s Republic of China join the UN Security Council. Since then, only 13 nations and the Vatican still officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country, leaving it one of the most diplomatically isolated governments in the world. The lack of official recognition could embolden Beijing to follow Russia’s example, without fear of equivalent reprisal. Taiwan’s situation is also more precarious due to the fact that there is no NATO equivalent in Asia, nor does it have any military allies. The closest equivalent Taiwan has to a military ally is the US, which sells military equipment to the island, making it an unofficial defense ally at best, with no formal commitment to Taiwan’s defense in the case of a military invasion. Geographically speaking, Ukraine is situated close to the West, with Poland, a NATO member, on the western border. In contrast, Taiwan is geographically isolated and under constant threat from its much larger and more powerful neighbor, with no other allies other than the US having a military presence in the region. While NATO and the US have expressed their military commitment to defending Ukraine, no other countries, let alone a multilateral military alliance composed of some of the most powerful nations on the planet, are similarly committed to protecting Taiwan’s political sovereignty and independence. The conflict against an organized coalition with a coordinated military response was a calculated risk that Putin willingly took, and is one that Xi will not likely lose sleep over.
In the zero-sum game strategic mindset of the Chinese bureaucracy, the Ukraine crisis is a test of American resolve to uphold its geopolitical commitments. Should the West fail to effectively intervene and stop Russia, China could follow suit and embark on a similar campaign of coercion. Given Taiwan’s precarious situation, the mere threat of military force might be enough to compel Taiwan to meet its political demands, namely the acceptance of PRC sovereignty over the island, without having to even resort to an actual military invasion.
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