Following the Arab Spring, and the Syrian Civil War, the Mediterranean became the main passage for EU-bound migrants. The migrant crisis of 2015 resulted in more than a million people crossing into Europe. While migration rates have lowered, Turkey’s authoritative leader, Recep Erdoğan, is taking aggressive actions that further destabilizes the Mediterranean.
Turkey, a key member of NATO that houses US nuclear warheads at its Incirlik air base, has been under Erdoğan’s rule since 2003. Formerly the mayor of Istanbul and Prime Minister,Erdoğan became president in 2014. After a failed coup in 2016, he tightened his grip on Turkey, arresting thousands of opponents –objections from the European Union and the United States. While Erdoğan’s increasingly authoritarian regime did not face any repercussions, it was the purchase of the S-400 air defense system in 2017 that marked Turkey’s key shift against NATO.
More than just a member of NATO, Turkey was also a key member of the F-35 program at the time, helping fund the development of the American born 5th generation fighter jet. As partner in the project, Turkey was expected to take part in the industrial effort through manufacturing parts, repairing and servicing the fighters. Turkey was to enjoy full access to the technology, including the stealth properties. The F-35 was also expected to help modernize the aging Turkish air fleet, with an initial order of 100 planes and follow-up orders expected.
The prospect of having its most recent and stealthy jet fighter under Russian made radars and air defense systems was a breach of security too great for the United States. As key members of the US Congress put it in their op-ed in the NYT, “The S-400 is the most advanced system produced to date in Russia’s quest to defeat stealth technology — the system Russia built to shoot down the F-35 fighters.”. The expected decision followed, with the US forcing Turkey out of the F35 fighter program and imposing sanctions. Ever since, Turkey has inched closer and closer to Russia, raising questions about the US and NATO’s reliance on Turkey— “It’s time to get US nukes out of Turkey” said Steven Pifer in 2019, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute.
While this “defense decoupling” is not of much concern for the EU, Turkey’s agreement with the Libyan recognized government exclusive economic zones in November 2019 has been. This agreement, which backs up Turkey’s claim on disputed oil fields, became the starting point for a more aggressive attitude by Erdoğan in the Mediterranean. Shortly after the agreement, Turkey aggressively prospected the oil fields with a small armada constituted of five military ships at all times.
During this crisis on Europe’s southern border, neither the EU nor NATO provided a strong response, as internal disagreements handcuffed each.
However, one European power did try to fill the power-vacuum left by the US Navy in the East Mediterranean: France.
Emmanuel Macron’s government was the only European power to support Greece directly. Macron dispatched immediately a pair of Rafale fighters and a frigate, and a few weeks later had a helicopter carrier join the frigate for a greek naval exercise. While this is clearly in France’s own interest, as France has seemingly embraced the role of military leader in a post-Brexit European Union, it was warmly received by Greece which recognized the only show of force in its favor. France sold 18 Rafale fighter jets to Greece in January 2021 for $3 billion. That wasn’t all. France and Greece announced a defense pact in September 2021, which included the procurement of 3 frigates and 6 more Rafale fighters. France highlights the deal as a key example of European Strategic autonomy as it“advances Greece’s military capabilities significantly, putting them 10-15 years ahead of Turkey,” said George Fillis, a professor in geopolitics. And, key to France’s vision of the EU, it improves European military presence in the region while supporting the European military industry.
Despite the strong partnership between France and Greece and the European Irini operation (where German and French ships were targeted or blocked by Turkey’s navy), the EU still seems passive. The EU’s passive stance gets harder to understand when, on top of Turkey’s behavior, Russia is also increasing its presence through a naval base in Syria and a growing involvement in Libya. EU’s inactivity becomes particularly striking when compared to NATO and EU responses on their Eastern border, where fighter jets and troops are dispatched. And this time, with the United States attention focused on Asia, it might be time for the EU to “stop being naive” as it might be on its own for the first time in more than 75 years.
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