On September 15th, President Biden announced in a joint press conference with Australia and Great Britain a new trilateral security initiative, centered around the procurement of at least 8 nuclear-powered submarines from Australia.
The new security partnership called “AUKUS” was made to counter Chinese velleities in the Asia-Pacific region. The deal has been seen by many as a step towards two potential bases for the US Navy in Australia, a crucial region far away from its current bases in Hawaii or Japan.
While the security partnership makes sense in a region of increasing competition, and the procurement of nuclear-powered submarines is a clear improvement over Australia’s conventional (diesel powered) submarines, one Western ally is visibly mad: France.
Before the AUKUS security partnership, Australia and France signed a $65 billion dollar procurement contract – dubbed the “deal of the century” – to locally build a new fleet of 12 conventional submarines,”: . France won the procurement competition against German and Swedish proposals in 2016. While a significant part of the deal was executed in Australia as the ships were supposed to be built locally, it was still one of France’s most lucrative military deals ever. The deal was essential, as the country’s national defense industry needs exportations to be viable. The initial submarine procurement had seen some difficulties, and many were wondering if the deal would be fulfilled. But the breach of that contract obviously is a failure for the French industry with negative repercussions on a company key for France’s military independence and expertise.
The lost submarine contract is more than just a gigantic financial loss for France; it is also their exclusion from an alliance in a region they are directly involved in. France is the only EU member state with territories, forces, and interests in the Asia-Pacific region.
“The view in Paris is that the US formed an alliance in secret with two partners, undercutting France’s entire Indo-Pacific strategy in the last decade,” Benjamin Haddas, Director of the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council, said.
Why exclude France from a partnership destined to face Chinese expansion velleities when they are faced with the same issue and have shown the will to patrol the South-China Sea? France was also involved in discussions on increased military cooperation with Australia just a week before the AUKUS was announced, and French troops took part in military exercises in Australia last August.
However, these points do not explain why France called back its ambassadors in Australia and the USA (but not the UK) on Friday, an unprecedented move in nearly 250 years of French-American relations. The recall most likely has to do with an exasperation over the aggressiveness shown by the Biden Administration in arms deals over its first year in office. France is one of the few nations in the world capable of developing all kinds of technologically advanced military equipment, such as nuclear powered submarines. But these modern equipment are so expensive that exportations are necessary to absorb the development costs, even for the US.
The need for exports is even more crucial for France’s industry, and this is where the US enters the picture as overly aggressive to France: in less than a year of President Biden’s presidency, this is the second time that France loses a major military contract.
Although the submarine deal is front and center right now, France was the frontrunner for a $5.5 billion dollar Swiss military contract to build 36 jets. However, the contract was awarded to the US F35 jet in June 2021. While this could be boiled down to fair competition, the French Rafale was considered the main frontrunner for months in relation to Switzerland’s key criterion including the operational cost, a proven platform and the air policy capability.
Ultimately, the F-35 won the contract, despite being an unproven platform, known for high operating costs. Some speculate that the Biden administration offered the F35 a discount in order to win the competition, which caught the French off-guard. The AUKUS looks like a similar case of France being blindsided by one of their closest allies for business reasons.
On September 18th the French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Yves Le Drian, said “There has been duplicity, contempt and lies – you can’t play that way in an alliance.”
Le Drian’s words exemplify how deep the breach of trust is between France and the US, and how the announcement of AUKUS – announced to France hours before the conference – was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
While the diplomatic fallout has reached unexpected heights, Michael Shurkin, senior analyst at RAND, says “If Americans find Macron hostile, just wait for the next French election (in may 2022, ndlr) when he has to face off against rivals on the left and on the right, both of which are anti-American and anti-NATO.”
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